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DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/13 10:57
Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday Thursday; Wheat Mixed
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are
9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are
9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock market
is weaker at midday with the S&P 75 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 40
points lower. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is firmer
with crude up .50 and natural gas is .09 higher. Livestock trade is lower
across cattle and hogs this morning. Precious metals are weaker with gold off
4.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with firmer spread action as
we edged to new highs ahead of the WASDE report Friday. On the report, trade is
looking for corn yield at 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa) versus 186.7 bpa on the
last report in September with carryout at 2.125 billion bushels (bb) versus
2.11 bb in September. Ethanol margins should remain mostly stable with firmer
corn and flat unleaded narrowing things a little bit. Harvest should hit the
downhill stretch with mostly open weather through this week. Fresh export sales
are expected to have held up well with government reporting starting to return.
Basis should start moving toward post-harvest levels toward the end of the
month. On the December chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $4.28
with the next round up the fresh high at $4.39 3/4.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 8 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade scoring fresh
highs for the move and meal surging ahead during the day session. Meal is 4.50
to 5.50 higher and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. On the report, trade is
looking for yields of 53.1 bpa versus 53.5 bpa prior and carryout at 315
million bushels (mb) versus 300 mb last time. Harvest on remaining acres should
be closer to being fully wrapped up nationally with open weather. South
American weather looks to remain good for the early growing season with some of
Brazil seeing a bit of short-term dryness. Basis should continue to firm if a
trade deal delivers a more-normal fall-export pace with a better look at recent
pace expected as catch-up reports come out. On the January chart, resistance is
the $11.48 3/4 area, where we find the fresh high from overnight with the
20-day moving average well below the market at $10.91.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are narrowly mixed in quiet midday trade as we continue to
consolidate the range after bouncing back Wednesday late in the session. On the
report, trade is looking for carryout at 868 mb versus 844 mb last time.
Weather should remain mostly favorable for the Plains in the short-term with
early stands expected to be good overall with warmer temps returning for the
Plains for the balance of the week. MATIF wheat is narrowly mixed Thursday
morning. Southern Hemisphere wheat harvest continues to make good progress. On
the KC December chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $5.15 with the
next round up the fall high at $5.40 from last week.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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