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DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/17 11:03
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Higher at Midday Monday
Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are
27 to 30 cents higher; wheat futures are 10 to 18 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are
27 to 30 cents higher; wheat futures are 10 to 18 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is mixed at midday with the S&P 5 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is
15 points higher. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade is mixed
with crude flat and natural gas is .09 lower. Livestock trade is firmer with
cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold off 22.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher with broad buying picking up into
midday as we erase Friday's losses with support from soybeans. On the report
Friday, corn yield was 186.0 bushels per acre (bpa) versus 186.7 bpa last time;
183.8 bpa was expected with carryout at 2.154 billion bushels (bb) versus 2.11
bb last time and 2.125 bb expected; world stocks were unchanged. Ethanol
margins look to remain rangebound in the short-term with firmer corn likely to
crimp things a little. Harvest should be nearly complete whenever we get the
first weekly crop progress report in a while. Export data is starting to be
caught up with nothing on the daily wire Monday, but a significant amount on
the catch-up release, mostly to Mexico and unknown of around 4.3 million metric
tons (mmt). Weekly export inspections remain very strong at 2.054 mmt, keeping
year-to-date pace at 173%. Basis should start to stabilize and firm in most
areas. On the December chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $4.29
with the next round up the fresh high at $4.42 3/4.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 27 to 30 cents higher at midday as big product moves
help trade recover from the poor close on Friday along with weekend statements
about trade deal signing expected next week. Meal is 6.50 to 7.50 higher and
oil is 90 to 100 points higher. On the report, yield was 53.0 bpa versus 53.1
bpa expected, 53.5 bpa last time; carryout was 290 mb versus 300 mb last time
and 315 mb expected; world stocks were down 2 mmt. Harvest should show nearly
finished on the weekly crop progress report. South American weather continues
to keep overall concerns limited with some dry pockets in Brazil. Basis should
continue to firm seasonally as we wait for further export data to catch us up
with nothing on the daily wire Friday and 1.23 mmt on the catch-up wire
releases, with only limited sales to China. Weekly export inspections improved
slightly to 1.176 mmt with year-to-date pace falling to 57%. On the January
chart, resistance is the $11.55 3/4 area, where we find the fresh high from
this morning, with the 20-day moving average well below the market at $11.03.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 10 to 18 cents higher with buying picking up during the
day session as we move back to the upper end of the recent range with support
from the row crops. On the report, carryout came in at 901 mb versus 868 mb
expected and 844 mb last time; world stocks were up 7 mmt. Weather should
remain mostly favorable for the Plains in the short-term with weekly crop
progress likely to show winter wheat emergence wrapped up with conditions
overall good. MATIF wheat is firmer as well. Weekly export inspections remained
soft at 246,533 metric tons with year-to-date pace at 119%. Southern Hemisphere
wheat harvest continues to make good progress. On the KC December chart,
support is the 20-day moving average at $5.15, which is where we closed, with
the next round up the fall high at $5.40 from earlier in the month.
**
Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST, on Friday, Nov. 14,
as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions
are welcome and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their
convenience. Register here for Friday's November WASDE report webinar:
https://www.dtn.com/wasde-webinars/.
**
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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