DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/08 11:05
Grains Trending Flat at Midday
Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are flat to 1 cent lower, and wheat is
flat to 6 cents higher.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 550 points as active trade
continues. The dollar index is 15 points higher. Interest rate products are
mostly higher. Energies are mixed with crude $0.70 higher. Livestock trade is
mixed with cattle higher, and hogs lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with early gains fading as
positive news remains lacking. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with the
weekly report showing production sharply lower as expected, down 168,000
barrels per day, with stocks up 1.374 million barrels to a record high. Corn
basis will likely remain sideways for now with much of the slowdowns priced in
at this point. Warmer weather will aid early-week progress before declining
into next week. On the report tomorrow, carryout is expected to rise to 2.035
billion from 1.892 last month. On the May contract, support is the lower
Bollinger Band at $3.22, and resistance the 20-day at $3.43.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents lower with choppy trade so far with little
fresh news. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher, with oil 30 to 40 points lower. South
America is continuing to harvest with port disruptions the biggest concern,
with weak currencies helping local profitability. Corn is holding vs. soybeans
for new crop overnight, with soybeans remaining reluctant to buy acres. On the
report, carryout is expected to be 430 million bushels, basically unchanged.
The May soybean chart support is the gap at $8.41, with resistance the 20-day
at $8.60, which we are just below overnight.
Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents higher at midday with rangebound trade
ongoing with good support on breaks, but limited buying enthusiasm to push the
market and the higher protein classes leading. There has been talk of new
Middle East import tenders short term, with Russia still refining export and
transport protocols, amid a dry start to the spring. Kansas City is at a
72-cent discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while
Minneapolis is minus 19 with narrower action to start the week. On the report,
carryout is expected to remain unchanged at 940 million bushels. The May Kansas
City chart support is the 20-day at $4.69, with resistance the $5.00 area.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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