DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/11 11:04
All Grains Higher at Midday
Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher, and wheat is
4 to 7 cents higher.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 260 points. The dollar index
is 16 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly
higher with crude up $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
weaker with gold down $84.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with light ongoing buying with
concerns about damage from the storms yesterday along with position squaring
ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report. Ethanol margins are stable short term with
flat energies and gasoline demand holding mostly steady. Basis has remained
fairly flat in recent days, with pressure likely at locations with a strong
crop coming soon. On the WASDE report, trade is looking for yields to edge
above 180 BPA. Weekly crop progress showed conditions down 1% to 72% good to
excellent and 8% poor to very poor, with 59% in the dough vs. 52% on average,
and 11% dented vs. 12% on average. On the September contract, trade continues
to have resistance at the 20-day at $3.20, with chart support at the lower
Bollinger Band at $3.04.
Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents higher with light buying as the export streak
remained intact with another 132,000 metric tons booked to China. Meal is $0.50
to $1.50 higher, and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. The ral has weakened vs. the
dollar the last day or so, but new crop should remain competitive for the U.S.
for now. Weather looks to continue to be good for most into podfill. Crop
progress showed good to excellent up 1% to 74% and poor to very poor at 5%,
with 92% blooming vs. 89% on average, and 75% setting pods vs. 68% on average.
The WASDE report is expected to show yields moving about 51 BPA. The September
chart now has resistance at the 20-day at 8.86 which we are pulling back from,
and support the lower Bollinger band at 8.65.
Wheat trade is 4 to 7 cents higher with trade remaining choppy while it
holds the lower end of the range. The ruble is holding vs. the dollar as well
with more Middle East tenders being scheduled into fall along with weaker
prices going to exporters on the ones that filled today. Kansas City is at an
78-cent discount to Chicago with spreads now a dime off the recent highs, while
Minneapolis is back to a 2 cent discount. Winter wheat harvest 90% complete vs.
93% on average, and spring wheat 15% complete vs. 25% on average, with good to
excellent down 3% to 69%, and 7% poor to very poor. The WASDE report will focus
more on world numbers with increases expected for Russian production tomorrow.
Kansas City September chart support is the fresh low at $4.09 3/4, with the
20-day back above the market as nearby resistance at $4.36.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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