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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          10/07 11:38

   Livestock See Mixed Demand Come Friday

   The livestock complex is seeing mixed demand thus far throughout the day and 
mixed tones will likely follow the contracts through closing.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst


   The livestock complex is seeing hit and miss support in Friday's market as 
the feeder cattle complex wanes lower as a lack of overall support stifles the 
market, especially now that corn is trading higher. The lean hog complex has 
seemed to run out of steam after trading excitedly through Thursday's market as 
the industry saw excellent cash demand earlier in the week and a strong export 
report. The live cattle complex has traded on both sides of steady Friday 
morning but with midday boxed beef prices sporting stronger figures, its market 
is trading mildly higher. December corn is up 8 1/4 cents per bushel and 
December soybean meal is up $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 
541.17 points.


   The live cattle complex began the day off trading lower but as time has 
progressed the market has turned more friendly and is turning mildly higher 
heading into Friday's afternoon. October live cattle are up $0.02 at $145.35, 
December live cattle are up $0.35 at $148.22 and February live cattle are up 
$0.20 at $151.82. Helping the market grow stronger as the day's progressed is 
undoubtedly the notice of higher midday boxed beef prices. As the boxed beef 
market has seen more support this week, the market's recent support begs the 
reasonable question of: Have boxed beef prices found their bottom for the 
season? The cash cattle market hasn't seen any more trade develop as packers 
did most of their buying on Thursday. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle 
have traded at $144, which is $1.00 higher than last weeks weighted average and 
Northern dressed cattle sold mostly for $230, which is also $1.00 higher than 
last week's weighted average.

   Fresh beef imports for the week total 21,245 metric tons with Canada, Mexico 
and Australia carrying the lion's share of the trade. To date, fresh beef 
imports in 2022 are 7% higher than compared to a year ago. Processed beef 
imports for the week totaled 1,628 metric tons with Brazil contributing 63% of 
the shipment. To date processed beef imports in 2022 are 18% higher than 
compared to a year ago.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.19 ($247.55) and select up $1.67 
($218.66) with a movement of 83 loads (48.01 loads of choice, 18.33 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 17.05 loads of ground beef).


   The feeder cattle wouldn't budge and even contemplate trading higher through 
Thursday's market, which lent some positive factors that could have helped the 
market trade mildly higher (weaker corn prices, higher fat cattle trade), but 
now that the market is looking at a $0.06 to $0.07 rally in corn, it's surely 
not trading higher into Friday's afternoon. October feeders are down $0.40 at 
$175.27, November feeders are down $0.22 at $176.20 and January feeders are 
down $0.82 at $177.02. The feeder cattle market has hit a lull where it 
desperately needs support, and with buyers and traders leery of the U.S. 
economy, feeder prices, interest rates and inflation -- the market could be 
settling into a lower tone for the mean time.


   After posting a rather sporty rally throughout Thursday's market, which was 
largely fueled by strong exports and continued support in domestic demand, the 
lean hog complex has seemed to run of out steam come Friday. December lean hogs 
are down $0.57 at $77.20, February lean hogs are down $0.27 at $80.02 and April 
lean hogs are down $0.12 at $85.50. Midday pork cutout values are higher (which 
doesn't mean a whole lot given that anything could happen by the afternoon's 
report), but it is a stronger price nonetheless and packers are meticulously 
watching demand cues.

   The projected lean hog index for Oct. 6 is down $0.12 at $92.65, and the 
actual index for Oct. 5 is down $0.16 at $92.77. Hog prices are lower on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.68 with a weighted average of $87.64, 
ranging from $83.00 to $95.00 on 3,523 head and a five-day rolling average of 
$87.83. Pork cutouts total 166.92 loads with 144.57 loads of pork cuts and 
22.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.76, $103.17.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached

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