DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/14 12:13
Down Wednesday & Undecided Thursday
Live cattle contracts and feeder cattle contracts are starting to rebound
from Wednesday 's hasty setback, but lean hog contracts aren't jumping on the
band wagon just yet.
By ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
Feeder cattle contracts led the complex lower Wednesday and now are rallying
and motivating live cattle contracts to do the same -- lean hog contracts, as
of noon, aren't too sure about rebounding though. December corn is up 3/4 cent
per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average is down 73.07 points and NASDAQ is down 30.79 points.
Live cattle contracts are the most unsure of where to land Thursday morning.
Feeder cattle contracts shoot higher, lean hog contracts keep their bearish
whistle of lower and live cattle contracts are across the board. Higher, and
then lower, then to evenly mixed live cattle contracts jump around. December
live cattle are up $0.35 at $118.45, February live cattle are up $0.22 at
$124.32 and April live cattle are up $0.02 at $125.70.
Cash cattle have yet to really trade and set the week's tone, though there
have been dressed cattle sold in eastern Nebraska for $182 with delayed
delivery until 12/02/19. Bids of $115 are surfacing in Nebraska and Colorado.
If feeders feel as if the downward pressure is here to stay and that the board
is going to continue to erode into next week and potentially beyond -- cash
cattle trade could get underway this afternoon. If feeders feel as if they
still hold enough leverage and can push trade until sometime Friday, they may
let packers sit on their bids another day and let the board stabilize.
Midday boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.13 ($242.21) and select
down $1.67 ($215.86) with a movement of 52 loads (31.34 loads of choice, 10.73
loads of select, 4.91 loads of trim and 5.04 loads of ground beef).
Feeder cattle contracts have taken it upon themselves in the last couple of
days to shake things up. First feeder cattle markets led the entire livestock
complex lower on Wednesday, and now the feeder cattle contracts are all
rallying in both nearby and deferred months. November feeder cattle are up
$1.02 at $146.60, January feeder cattle are up $1.12 at $143.95 and March
feeders are up $0.55 at $143.82.
News circulates Thursday morning that new cases of African swine fever have
set into some Eastern European countries. The World Organization for Animal
Health announced that a new case has been reported in Moldova. The headline did
mention that the disease has been present in parts of Hungary and Romania since
at least 2018.
Unlike the rest of the livestock complex, lean hog futures aren't ready to
bounce back and rally just yet. December lean hogs are down $0.12 at $63.00,
February lean hogs are down $1.07 at $73.47 and April lean hogs are down $1.35
at $80.40. It wouldn't be unlikely to see the lean hog complex keep this steady
to slightly downward trade throughout the rest of the day. The projected lean
hog index for 11/12/19 is up $0.61 at $59.55, and the actual index for 11/11/19
came in down $0.50 at $58.94. Prices on the National Direct Hog Report are up
$0.29 with a weighted average of $42.53, ranging from $40.00 to $44.99 on 5,814
head sold and a five-day average of $43.12. Pork cutouts totaled 180.02 loads
with 164.08 loads of pork cuts and 15.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are
down $0.66 at $86.36.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached email@example.com
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